Has the Bitcoin Bull run its course ?
Picking the best time to ride a trend is tricky, especially if we are talking about recent bitcoin bullish run. Traders that managed to get in at the very beginning have best chances of making enormous profits. However, those are rare. The majority entered more recently and is wondering whether this particular run is nearing its end.
We dissect the situation and provide insights on whether you should sell right now or not.
The Start of the Bitcoin Bull Run
To effectively investigate what is happening, we use Coinbase data from TradeView BTC/USD chart. Other exchanges produce similar (if not the same) results, so data from Coinbase is good enough for the technical analysis (TA).
Our journey begins on 1st of April, 2019, with Bitcoin recording the first real price growth since 2018. BTC jumped from $4,130 to $4,180 within an hour. A the time, nobody took it as a sign of the bull run, as cryptos are quite volatile. However, April’s Fools day turned out not to be a joke after all, once BTC crossed the $5,600 price tag.
Following the inevitable correction at $5,6k, BTC tested the resistance level of $5,200, finally breaking it on 3rd of May. Then, it simply marched forward to $13,000 on 26th June, with lots of resistance being broken over time.
What caused the Run ?
It is quite difficult to pinpoint exact catalysts that drew the market forward. What is certain is that the number of transaction rose on 1st of April, judging from the Blockchain.com data below.
Traders positioned a large number of long orders, which in turn pushed the price up just the day before price surge in April. So far, we gathered that news about BTC’s 2020 halving, continuous US-China trade war, and issues with stock markets pushed the crypto up.
What's going on now ?
However, everything has an end, and it seems that BTC bull run is stopping now. Following the $13k surge, support was not enough to keep BTC growing and slumped down quite harshly towards $9,8k. The correction was short-lived as well, as it only prolonged the inevitable dropdown, as we can see from the chart below.
It definitely seems that BTC can only go down from this point and $10k resistance level might prove to be too hard to surpass.
Whatever long positions you might have, BTC broke through support resistances and is spiraling down at the moment. Bitcoin so far moved either downwards or sideways since it hit the $13k mark and shows no signs of changing the direction.
However, does it mean that we are entering the bear trend? It is hard to say right now. Crypto markets move solely on participants, meaning that predictions are quite hard to make (crystal ball, anyone?). You might want to keep an eye on the market, especially if you are a trader. Short-term sell orders can make you a buck more so than short-term long positions.
Lastly, keep in mind that both bull and bear runs are quite common for cryptocurrencies. There have been numerous bull runs in the past and shall be in the foreseeable future. So, our advice is to wait it out and pick the next one when it comes. Halving in 2020 is not that far off anyway.
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